Last week, Sir Keir Starmer stood outside Downing Street and announced his resignation, paving the way for the UK’s seventh prime minister in a decade. Whatever your politics, the practical reality for business owners is the same: another stretch of “wait and see.” Nominations to replace him open on 9 July, and a new leader may not be in place until September. The likelihood is that it will be earlier than this, but if so it will be a long summer of question marks over tax, spending and policy direction.
For owner-managed businesses across the UK, the instinct is understandable — pause big decisions, sit tight, see how it shakes out. But here’s the uncomfortable truth I share with my clients: waiting is itself a decision, and usually the wrong one.
Uncertainty was already the headline
Political drama lands on top of an economy where caution is already the dominant mood. Economic uncertainty has been the most-reported challenge affecting business turnover since October 2022, with around a third of trading firms citing it earlier this year. Bibby’s SME Confidence Index fell to 51% in early 2026, down from a 66% peak the previous autumn. And iwoca found that just 38% of small firms feel optimistic about the UK economy, down from 51% a year earlier.
Yet look closer and there’s a more encouraging signal underneath. In that same iwoca research, 72% of SME leaders still expected their own turnover to grow this year. Read that again. Owners are pessimistic about the economy but confident about their own business. That gap is the whole game — because the second number is the one you actually control.
Control the controllables
A change of prime minister doesn’t change your customer relationships, your margins, your team, or your systems. Those are yours. So while the commentators speculate, here’s where I’d focus:
Protect your cash. Late payments have already disrupted operations for four in ten SMEs. In uncertain periods, cash flow — not profit on paper — keeps the doors open. Tighten your invoicing, chase debtors early, and know your numbers weekly, not quarterly.
Stress-test, don’t freeze. Rather than halting investment, model it. What does a hire, a piece of kit, or a marketing push look like under three scenarios? Owners who plan in small, reversible steps keep momentum while nervous competitors stall — and a stalled competitor is your opportunity.
Talk to your team. Uncertainty breeds rumour. A short, honest conversation about how the business is positioned does more for productivity than any Budget ever will.
Stay close to customers. When everyone else goes quiet and defensive, the business that keeps showing up wins share. Downturns and wobbles are when market position gets redrawn.
The owner’s mindset
The single biggest predictor of how a business fares through political and economic turbulence isn’t sector or size — it’s whether the owner sees themselves as in control or at the mercy of events. The first group works on the business: refining systems, reducing their own indispensability, building something resilient enough to thrive whoever holds the keys to Number 10. The second group waits for permission from Westminster that never quite arrives.
Governments come and go — seven in ten years, as today reminds us. Your business is the thing that endures. Spend this summer making it stronger, not watching the news.
Roger Pemberton coaches owner-managed businesses across Liverpool, Wirral and Merseyside to maximise profit and build value. To discuss working on your business, visit business.actioncoach.co.uk/coaches/roger-pemberton or email rogerpemberton@actioncoach.com
